Independents rise - Nationals bush whacked

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National’s leader Warren Truss follows up these claims with the boast that his party boosted their numbers from nine to 12 in the House of Representatives. He is not so forth coming about the Nationals actual vote.

It is worth remembering that Truss and his fellow Nationals were under tremendous pressure going into this election with some commentators predicting the demise of the Nationals.

In the House of Representatives there was a 0.15% swing to the Nationals. The Liberal National Party of Queensland gained a 0.85% swing. The Greens achieved a 3.68% swing across the country.

So how did the Nationals muster an increase in seats off an ordinary performance?

In South Australia the Nationals won no lower house seats. In New South Wales and Victoria the Nationals gained no extra seats. In WA there is a new Nationals MP, Tony Crook. But he has said he will sit on the cross bench and as he replaced a Liberal MP that win does not contribute to the increase in Coalition numbers.

In the Senate the AEC only gives data for the combined Liberal/Nationals vote across the country. There was a 1.42% swing against these Coalition partners. The Greens gained a 3.75% swing.

While the Greens ran in many more seats, the party’s overall primary vote is higher than that of the Nationals in NSW, Victoria and WA. In Queensland the Nationals state wide vote is a little higher than that of the Greens.

With figures like these it is not surprising Truss stays away from an analysis of the vote. There is no good news for the Nationals in these latest voting trends.

With the independents now seen daily on probably every news outlet across the country as the voice of regional Australia the Nationals are feeling the pressure. But Truss’ claims that the Nationals “won’t be rubber-stamping legislation” and Tony Abbott is “on notice”, just serves as a reminder of what a compliant Coalition partner they have been to the dominant Liberal Party.

Nationals Senator John Williams backed up his leader arguing that his party had put in a “strong performance” in the election and that Liberals “can’t govern without us”.

Senator Barnaby Joyce weighed in with his warning that “Nationals would not vote as a guaranteed bloc”.

The tough talk from the Truss, Williams and Joyce trio has been seen before.

Back in 2008 in the Port Macquarie by-election caused when Rob Oakeshott resigned to contest the federal seat of Lyne NSW federal Liberal MP Alby Schultz campaigned in support of the independent Peter Besseling against the Nationals' candidate Leslie Williams.

Joyce led the Nationals' complaints to the then Coalition leader Malcolm Turnbull.

This 2008 cameo provides a window into standard National Party behaviour in Canberra – talk tough and then fall into line with the Liberals.

And that is why the independents are on the rise in many regional electorates.

More people in are realising that they will be better represented if they elect an independent MP. This shift poses a serious long term threat to the Nationals.